Puff Cast
ML-enhanced wind forecasts for Chesapeake Bay
Updated: Apr 4, 10:31 AMHRRR init: 9:00 AMRefreshed hourly
| Station | Now | +1h | +3h | +6h | +12h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thomas Point Light TPLM2 | 12 kt 10:00 AM | 4 kt NWS: 10 kt 10:00 AM | 7 kt NWS: 11 kt 12:00 PM | 11 kt NWS: 12 kt 3:00 PM | 11 kt NWS: 16 kt 9:00 PM |
Annapolis APAM2 | 5 kt 9:00 AM | 4 kt NWS: 4 kt 10:00 AM | 3 kt NWS: 8 kt 12:00 PM | 5 kt NWS: 9 kt 3:00 PM | 5 kt NWS: 10 kt 9:00 PM |
Solomons Island SLIM2 | 8 kt 9:00 AM | 8 kt NWS: 7 kt 10:00 AM | 8 kt NWS: 8 kt 12:00 PM | 9 kt NWS: 8 kt 3:00 PM | 9 kt NWS: 8 kt 9:00 PM |
Cambridge CAMM2 | 7 kt 9:00 AM | 2 kt NWS: 8 kt 10:00 AM | 5 kt NWS: 8 kt 12:00 PM | 8 kt NWS: 10 kt 3:00 PM | 6 kt NWS: 11 kt 9:00 PM |
<5 kt5-10 kt10-15 kt15-20 kt20+ kt
Forecast Funnels
How did predictions converge as each hour approached?
| Station | Time | 12h pred | 6h pred | 3h pred | 1h pred | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 10:00 AM | 9 kt -3.4 | 8 kt -4.5 | 8 kt -4.1 | 4 kt -8.5 | 12 kt |
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 9:00 AM | — | 8 kt -6.6 | 5 kt -9.7 | 4 kt -11.5 | 15 kt |
| Annapolis | Apr 4, 9:00 AM | — | 3 kt -1.8 | 3 kt -1.8 | 4 kt -0.9 | 5 kt |
| Solomons Island | Apr 4, 9:00 AM | — | 9 kt +0.9 | 9 kt +1.5 | 8 kt -0.3 | 8 kt |
| Cambridge | Apr 4, 9:00 AM | — | 4 kt -3.3 | 5 kt -1.9 | 3 kt -4.7 | 7 kt |
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 8:00 AM | — | 9 kt -3.8 | 6 kt -7.0 | 3 kt -9.6 | 13 kt |
| Annapolis | Apr 4, 8:00 AM | — | 3 kt -0.8 | 2 kt -1.4 | 4 kt +0.4 | 4 kt |
| Solomons Island | Apr 4, 8:00 AM | — | 8 kt +3.8 | 8 kt +3.5 | 7 kt +3.2 | 4 kt |
| Cambridge | Apr 4, 8:00 AM | — | 4 kt -2.5 | 4 kt -2.0 | 3 kt -3.7 | 6 kt |
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 7:00 AM | 7 kt -7.6 | 7 kt -8.1 | 5 kt -9.8 | 3 kt -12.5 | 15 kt |
| Annapolis | Apr 4, 7:00 AM | 2 kt -0.8 | 3 kt -0.2 | 2 kt -0.8 | 4 kt +1.2 | 3 kt |
| Solomons Island | Apr 4, 7:00 AM | 5 kt +1.0 | 4 kt +0.6 | 7 kt +2.8 | 6 kt +1.8 | 4 kt |
| Cambridge | Apr 4, 7:00 AM | 4 kt -0.5 | 3 kt -1.4 | 4 kt -0.8 | 3 kt -2.0 | 5 kt |
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 6:00 AM | 7 kt -0.1 | 7 kt +0.3 | 5 kt -1.8 | 3 kt -4.4 | 7 kt |
| Annapolis | Apr 4, 6:00 AM | 4 kt +2.1 | 3 kt +1.3 | 2 kt +0.5 | 4 kt +2.4 | 2 kt |
| Solomons Island | Apr 4, 6:00 AM | 5 kt -1.9 | 6 kt -1.3 | 7 kt -0.3 | 6 kt -1.0 | 7 kt |
| Cambridge | Apr 4, 6:00 AM | 5 kt +0.7 | 3 kt -1.1 | 4 kt -0.3 | 3 kt -1.9 | 5 kt |
| Thomas Point Light | Apr 4, 5:00 AM | 9 kt +2.7 | 10 kt +4.3 | 5 kt -0.8 | 3 kt -3.5 | 6 kt |
| Annapolis | Apr 4, 5:00 AM | 4 kt +2.2 | 3 kt +1.5 | 3 kt +1.0 | 4 kt +2.9 | 2 kt |
| Solomons Island | Apr 4, 5:00 AM | 8 kt +3.4 | 7 kt +2.6 | 7 kt +3.2 | 6 kt +1.7 | 4 kt |
Model Accuracy (backtest, 12h lead)
| Station | Puff Cast | Raw NWS | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annapolis | 1.4 kt | 4.4 kt | 70% |
| Cambridge | 2 kt | 3 kt | 34% |
| Solomons | 1.9 kt | 2.5 kt | 25% |
| Thomas Point | 2.4 kt | 3.1 kt | 19% |